Members of Think Peace worked for decades towards and for the Iran Deal – in the context of various groups of experts as well as Think-Tanks – and deeply regret Mr. Trump’s decision to renege on the Deal.
Dr. Shiva Kambari
A number of relevant links and assessments:
In non-legislative terms, there are likely to be three key effects, Mehrdad Emadi, senior economist for risk analysis and energy derivatives markets consultancy Betamatrix, told NBI.
“First, there would probably be a short-term rise in the oil price, but other oil producing countries such as Iraq, Russia and Saudis would fill in most of the void le by Iran’s reduced exports of crude,” he said.
This would be caused by a drop in oil output from Iran. NewsBase Research (NBR) anticipates that oil flows from the Islamic Republic could fall by up to 250,000 bpd in the medium term if US sanctions are ramped back up on the commodity. is has, however, already been largely priced in, and NBR anticipates only a modest bump as a result, perhaps towards US$80 per barrel.
“Second, there would be a substantial increase in the risk of doing any kind of business with Iran by Western firms, as we are already witnessing agreements with Boeing, Airbus and Total, which are in semi-freeze status,” he added.
“And thirdly, and the most negative for the West, especially Europe, will be the continuation of the integration of the Iranian economy into the sphere of interest and control of Russia and China, where Iranian foreign trade will be based on rubles and yuan in almost all of its oil and gas transactions,” he underlined.
“The biggest loser of this will be the EU, where the monopoly reach of Russian energy companies will become substantially tighter and more di cult to resist, while at the same time, at least semi-permanently, [they] will eliminate Iran’s ability to become a key supplier of energy to Europe,” he concluded.
It is no surprise that European leaders have tried hard to change Trump’s mind. With these efforts having fallen on deaf ears, there will now be yet more uncertainty over the future of European relations with Iran.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has said he is worried about European relations with the US. He said the US administration no longer believes in the idea of a global community.
Trans-Atlantic relations are in a state of worrying change, with a US administration that takes an “every man for himself” approach to global affairs, the German president said in an interview with German public-service broadcaster ARD.
His remarks come as Europe remains at odds with US President Donald Trump over trade, defense and the Iran nuclear deal.
President Trump is withdrawing the United States from an Iran nuclear deal that has worked, in the name of unrelated demands that are unworkable, at very high cost to America’s alliances and the value of its word, with no viable alternative policy in place and at the risk of igniting the Middle East.
European leaders reacted with dismay but determination Tuesday after President Trump announced that the United States would pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran and impose tough new sanctions.
The move marked a profound rupture with the United Nations and with the deal’s other signatories, including Britain, France and Germany, and threatened to become the biggest fracture in transatlantic relations in a generation.
Indeed, today’s unpopular announcement may have been exactly what two of Trump’s biggest donors, Sheldon Adelson and Bernard Marcus, and what one of his biggest inaugural supporters, Paul Singer, paid for when they threw their financial weight behind Trump. Marcus and Adelson, who are also board members of the Likudist Republican Jewish Coalition, have already received substantial returns on their investment: total alignment by the U.S. behind Israel, next week’s move of the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and the official dropping of “occupied territories” to describe the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Guess who won’t be celebrating? The entire U.S. military establishment: Defense Secretary James Mattis, who says he has read the text of the nuclear agreement three times and considers it to be “pretty robust”; Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford, who says, “Iran is adhering to its JCPOA obligations” and a U.S. decision to quit the deal “would have an impact on others’ willingness to sign agreements”; the head of U.S. Strategic Command, Gen. John Hyten, who says, “Iran is in compliance with JCPOA” and argues “it’s our job to live up to the terms of that agreement”; and the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Joseph Votel, who says the nuclear deal is “in our interest” because it “addresses one of the principle threats that we deal with from Iran.”
There are few issues more important to the security of the United States than the potential spread of nuclear weapons, or the potential for even more destructive war in the Middle East. That’s why the United States negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the first place.
The reality is clear. The JCPOA is working – that is a view shared by our European allies, independent experts, and the current U.S. Secretary of Defense.
President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal will weaken U.S. relationships around the world and create problems that U.S. foreign policy will be grappling with for years, but it’s also a boon for the U.S. rival that American intelligence said helped Trump get elected: Russia.
The top European Union diplomat, Federica Mogherini, on Tuesday called on the international community to stick to the Iran nuclear deal despite U.S. President Donald Trump announcing he was pulling out and would reimpose sanctions on Tehran.
It was not a surprise. The appointments of John Bolton and Mike Pompeo as security adviser and secretary of state respectively, and Pompeo’s collusion with Binyamin Netanyahu’s presentation of supposedly revelatory new intelligence on Iran’s nuclear programme, all looked like preparation for Trump to repudiate the Iran nuclear deal (the Netanyahu revelations told nobody anything that was not known before). It is an act of diplomatic vandalism; removing one of the few anchors for stability in the Middle East, and damaging the credibility of the US in international diplomacy more widely. Obama’s commitment to the JCPOA was a commitment to diplomacy and peace that could, if built upon, have begun a process of de-escalation, reconciliation and relaxation of regional tensions. Trump’s decision puts the US and Iran back on the old path of confrontation and escalation that could end in war.
France’s foreign minister said Wednesday that the nuclear deal with Iran was “not dead” despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull the United States out from the agreement, adding that French President Emmanuel Macron would speak later in the day to Iranian counterpart Hassan Rohani.
“The deal is not dead. There’s an American withdrawal from the deal but the deal is still there,” the minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, told French radio station RTL.
CNN’s Christiane Amanpour explains the international implications of President Trump withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal.
And finally, a touch of humour, which is not unrelated to Iran:
“Oliver North is, hands down, the absolute best choice to lead our NRA Board, to fully engage with our members, and to unflinchingly stand and fight for the great freedoms he has defended his entire life,” NRA executive vice president and CEO Wayne LaPierre said in a statement on the pick.
The jokes, they write themselves. A trade association for the arms industry now will be headed by the most famous arms-trafficker in American history.